Given these statistics the total population growth should be negative because at -.02%, the rate of natural increase is far below replacement level. In fact Germany’s death rate has outpaced its birth rate annually for the last forty years. In 2013, the death rate (11/1000) was higher than the birth rate (8/1000) and this was not a new trend.
Though ranked as the 16th most populous country in the world, Germany’s rate of natural increase is below replacement level. Demographic Transition Model Stage 5 Case Study: Germany? Does a country belong in Stage 5 if it has a higher death than birth rate but does not have negative total population growth? The debate begins here. This demographic phenomenon has muddled the expected progression of countries along the DTM. Even with smaller birth rates countries are still growing because of positive net migration rates. Complicating the Demographic Transition Model’s framework is the impact of migration across national borders. According to the DTM each of these countries should have negative population growth but this has not necessarily been the case. Possible examples of Stage 5 countries are Croatia, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Japan, Portugal and Ukraine. In recent years a few countries, primarily in Eastern and Southern Europe, have reached a negative rate of natural increase as their death rates are higher than their birth rates. These social and political elements are not factored into the DTM equation but both have consequential impacts on total population. Since its implementation in 1979, China has not only witnessed a decline in birth rate but also a real demographic challenge: a gender imbalance, which is likely to lower the birth rate even further. One of the most infamous acts associated with population planning is China’s One-Child Policy. Other explanations for declining birth rate can be linked to biological or political causes, and consequently fertility rates differ from country to country. What occurs is an aging citizenry that will eventually lead to a decrease in total population. Whether persuaded by the high costs of raising a family in cities or the enticing opportunities of employment that delay child bearing, birth rates decline well below replacement level (2.1 children per woman). In this scenario it is the economy that is the driving force behind further limits on family size and the use of contraception. Based on demographic momentum, in which total population growth increases even while birth rates decline, it will take a generation or two before a negative population growth rate is observed. The negative population growth rate is not an immediate effect however. In Stage 5 of the DTM a country experiences loss to the overall population as the death rate becomes higher than the birth rate. What happens when the birth rate of a country declines to the point where it is lower than the death rate? Answer: entry into Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) – theoretically.
#Stage plot pro 5 series#
This is the final post (6 of 6) in a series about the Demographic Transition Model – a fundamental concept in population education, which is covered in Social Studies courses, most notably AP Human Geography.
Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model